New Polymarket Odds Paint a Grim Economic Picture

Polymarket bettors currently see a 47% chance of a US recession in 2025.

Bettors have bid up chances of a recession significantly over the last month, with chances going from roughly 22% in February to just under 50% in early April. The odds increase can likely be attributed to new global tariffs imposed by the US Government in response to tariffs imposed by other countries.

In other Polymarket odds, bettors currently see a 40% chance of Israel taking military action against Iran before July. Conversely, bettors currently see just a 32% chance of US military action against Iran before July. Prediction markets are increasingly useful for gauging the possibility of future events; those with money on the line are actually more likely to pick correctly than pollsters, a lesson we’ve seen repeated several times in recent years.