New Polymarket Odds Paint a Grim Economic Picture

Polymarket bettors currently see a 47% chance of a US recession in 2025. Bettors have bid up chances of a recession significantly over the last month, with chances going from roughly 22% in February to just under 50% in early April. The odds increase can likely be attributed to new global tariffs imposed by the US Government in response to tariffs imposed by other countries.